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Prediction for CME (2024-10-29T13:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-29T13:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34277/-1
CME Note: This event is visible for one frame in STEREO A COR2 imagery to the southwest, prior to a data gap from 2024-10-29T13:23Z to 23:23Z. In SOHO LASCO C3 this event is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest, but the CME is only observable for a few frames before it exits the field of view. The source is a large filament eruption spanning about S37W25 to S15W90, likely extending beyond the western limb, which begins to erupt around 2024-10-29T12:40Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is visible around the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 around 14:15Z, and post eruptive arcades begin to form around 17:15Z in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-31T19:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-11-03T23:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 15.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

SIDC URSIGRAM 41030
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 30 Oct 2024, 1239UT
SIDC FORECAST
...
Coronal mass ejections: A faint and slow partial halo coronal mass ejection
(CME) was detected by LASCO/C2 to lift off the south-west solar quadrant in the UTC afternoon on Oct 29th. The CME is related to a long-duration large on disk filament eruption, which started in the UTC morning on Oct 29th.
The CME has a projected velocity of about 550 km/s and the bulk is expected to miss the Earth, but modelling suggests that a slight glancing blow is possible to arrive late on Nov 3rd. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Lead Time: 29.57 hour(s)
Difference: -75.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2024-10-30T13:54Z

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